The bitcoin price range continues to narrow. This means that an impulsive exit from the sidewall is on the horizon.
We still could not overcome the POC (point of control) of the global balance sheet. Despite getting a good reaction with a false-break from the lower $30,000 boundary, it is now in its fourth week of failing to reach the upper boundary of the balance sheet - the $41,000 mark.
This means only one thing: Buyer weakness. The cumulative delta divergence also exacerbates the situation. It indicates that the amount of market buying is only increasing, but buyer aggression is constrained by a strong seller's limit slab.
More locally, we have already positioned last week's Value Area into a sell-off, meaning that we have consolidated below it. The only support now is the $32,600-$32,860 range, which also does not yet show buyer strength.
After fixing below $32,600, we can only expect a move towards $31,300, the last frontier of the buyers' defence. If it falls, given the number of liquidations and stops, it is safe to say that the price will continue to move strongly to the $23,600 area.
However, despite the positioning of last week's value zone into a sell-off, a downtrend could develop through a test of last week's POC of $33,900.
The most probable scenario is $31,300. It can be realized either from the current levels or through the test of $33,900. Cancellation of this short scenario would be fixation above $34,700.
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