The bitcoin price is still trading more than $25,000 below the local highs reached earlier this year - and the bulls have a lot of ground to regain.
However, the lost ground may not be such a bad thing, as it has brought the current market cycle much closer to the past bull cycle comparison. This, in turn, could show what's in store for Bitcoin in terms of price action in the coming months.
Bitcoin collapse brings market cycle on par with previous bull run
After a sharp decline of more than 55% in all cryptocurrencies - even top dog Bitcoin - the market is still divided on whether the bull run has ended or whether a new bear market has begun.
The standard definition of a bear market in "securities" is a decline of 20% or more. By these standards, Bitcoin is in a bear market every other week and has been since April 2021.
The massive drop was one of the worst monthly declines in history and made for the most devastating 2nd quarter in crypto history - and it may have been enough to prevent a full-blown crypto bear market.
It has also brought prices back to levels much more on par with past bull market cycles.
Does the parabolic crypto curve behave in the same way?
The chart above takes an exact copy of the bull market of 2016 and 2017 and contrasts it with the current market cycle. A similar parabolic curve is drawn to show the possible trajectory.
From 2015 to 2018, the bitcoin price grinded all the way up against the support curve. There was very little deviation from the round, upward line.
There is no denying that this latest market cycle is very different to the last - however, the recent 55% plunge has brought things much closer together in scale.
Similar to how the bitcoin price deviated from the curve at the start of 2019 and then overcorrected back down, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could have done exactly the same from April to the recent low reached earlier this month.
There is still some room between today and the next bump into the parabolic curve. While this could suggest that further sideways movement is ahead - the potential for a move lower is likely to be limited after the big correction.
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